The first Kentucky Derby futures pool opens in just a few weeks and the line has been posted at the Las Vegas Hilton. So here is our analysis of the 20 horses that we expect to see in the gate in May. Realistically 10 will make it at best.
Our line is next to the horse and the Letitride futures line can be found at the end of our analysis.
1. Street Sense (12-1) This horse has to be the favorite simply because of his beyer and win over the same track that will host the derby. (Las Vegas Hilton 9-1)
2. Exhale (12-1) Get in on this horse while you can. This horse will be the favorite on Kentucky Derby Day. He tops this years beyers list and looks like he can run forever (LVH 40-1)
3. Any Given Saturday (15-1) With Tiz Wondeful going down this horse has moved up. He has a big race over Churchill and is in good hands. (LVH 22-1)
4. Nobiz Like Shobiz (15-1) The favorite in the Las Vegas Hilton book, he is in good hands with a Kentucky Derby winning trainer. He is overbet though and not a good value in any futures book. A lack of a race at Churchill before the derby doesn't hurt him, but doesn't help him either. (LVH 8-1)
5. Circular Quay (18-1) Maybe the forgotten horse. His Breeders Cup was better than it looked. He may not want to run 10f though, but he does like Churchill. (LVH 30-1)
6. Notional (20-1)Hard not to like this horse that beat Exhale, but prefer Exhale. Not sure if 10f is his strength. (LVH 18-1)
7. Hard Spun (20-1) Obviously very impressive and still undefeated, however much like Nobiz Like Shobiz he is being overbet on wins against weak competition. Still has a lot to prove. (LVH 15-1)
8. Lawrence the Roman (25-1) Expect him to be undefeated when he meets the current LVH futures favorite Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Wood. Another NY bred named Funny Cide didn't get by the unbeatable Empire Maker but we all know who won the Funny Cide-Empire Maker matchup on derby day. A good value right now. (LVH 40-1)
9. Pirates Deputy (25-1) This horse seems like the more distance the better. He will be closing late at Churchill. A real shot to take home the Kentucky Derby trophy. (LVH 40-1)
10. Birdbirdistheword (30-1) He is a really nice horse but prefer the horse he beat Pirates Deputy. Way overbet on the current LVH line. (LVH 20-1)
11.Soaring By (35-1) This horse could be the real deal. His win on the 4th of July last year was really impressive. A solid value on the LVH line. (LVH 50-1)
12.Great Hunter (35-1) A lot of people really like him. Tend to take a position against him and think he is a little overbet at the hilton. (LVH 30-1)
13. Ravel (35-1) People love this horse. He has been bet down to a pretty short price in Las Vegas. Not a great value, but can't say he isn't impressive. (LVH 22-1)
14. Scat Daddy (40-1) Don't see him winning the Derby, and winning is all that matters in a futures bet. Pass, especially at 30-1. (LVH 30-1)
15. Day Pass (40-1) A real shot if they didn't take him half way around the world. Odds are he won't get it done. But at 50-1 in the hilton book, not a bad value. (LVH 50-1)
16. Stormello (40-1) Somebody likes him because he is 35-1 in vegas. Don't see that as a good value. Pass. (LVH 35-1)
17. Chelokee (40-1) If you are going to take a chance, he is a good horse to take a chance with. Who knows how good he is, but he has the right trainer. (LVH 40-1)
18. Minefield (40-1) If he wasn't bought and shipped to Dubai he would be 20-1 and a real serious player. Can't take a chance on the horse after his purchase. Pass (LVH 50-1)
19. Belgravia (40-1) A solid futures value. They have him at 50-1 but he is a little better than that. (LVH 50-1)
20. Liquidity (50-1) Sombody really likes this horse. Just not us. He has been bet down to 25-1 at the Hilton. Usually when a horse is taking that much action he is a horse to watch. Interesting but not at that price. (LVH 25-1)
Time Squared and Solicitious are two to watch closely. A maiden win by either would make them very interesting futures bets.
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