TCT's Number 10 Pirates Deputy Closes to Win

Number 10, Pirates Deputy, made a strong late move to win the 67th running of the $141,375 California Breeders Champion Stakes at Santa Anita yesterday.

A gelded son of Bertrando, Pirates Deputy covered the 7f distance in 1:23.66.

The winner, trained by Bob Baffert for The Lanni Family Trust and Schiappa, will be pointed for the classic trail, according to his trainer. "He's a big, gangly horse and we'll stretch him out and get him ready for the Derby trail," Baffert said. "When I saw he was that far back, I thought he was really going to have to put the after-burners on. He's the kind of horse that's been coming up short. Today, was his turn."


http://racing.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=36850

TCT's Must Watch Race of the Week (NOT a 2yr Old Race)

There were quite a few this week to choose from and yesterday a top 10, Pirates Deputy ran up to expectations winning with a strong closing move, but we saved this weeks race for a 3yr old 1/2 to Tiz Now. We will occasionaly post some non 2yr old races during the winter lull if we find them particularly interesting.

Santa Anita, Thursday, Race 4. C'Mon Tiger.

from drf.com
"Tiznow's brother makes U.S. debut
http://www.drf.com/news/article/81455.html

C'Mon Tiger, a half-brother to 2000 Horse of the Year Tiznow, makes his American debut in Thursday's fourth race, a $48,000 maiden race over a mile.

Owned by Jim Helzer and trained by Bob Baffert, C'Mon Tiger, 3, was purchased privately earlier this year from Michael Tabor. Racing in Ireland for Tabor, C'Mon Tiger has made one start this year, finishing fourth of 15 in a mile maiden race on turf while trained by Aidan O'Brien.

"To them, he didn't meet their standards," Baffert said of the Tabor-O'Brien team. "I hope they were wrong."


Santa Anita Park - December 28th, 2006 - Race 4
Estimated Local Post Time: 2:34 PM
Race Type: Maiden Special Weight
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward
Purse: $48,000
Distance:One Mile
Surface: Dirt

1 Startale 4/1
2 C'Mon Tiger 5/1
3 Polish Quest 8/1
4 Grand Point 8/1
5 World Asunder (KY) 6/1
6 Wildfang 20/1
7 Ratibor 5/2
8 Ballado's Gold 7/2
9 Truitte 30/1

Hard Spun Proves Himself in PA Nursery

Like our opening number 1 last year, Barbaro, this years opening number 1 will keep his spot for a few weeks longer. Opening at 1-9 and set off as the 1-5 favorite, TCT's Number 1, Hard Spun demolished the PA Nursery field under a hand ride. While the 123.4 time was not necessarily impressive, it was apparent he was asked for very little. Turning for home he had already put the race away.

What is next for Hard Spun? It appears he is headed for Oaklawn and will make his next start in the Grade III Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 13 at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. He should get a much better test there and we will get a better indication of how good this son of Danzig is.

Look for TCT's Complete Analysis of all the "3yr Olds"

Look for complete analysis, with videos for each of our Top 10 and On The Radar horses coming around January 1 as each of the 2yr olds on our lists turn 3.

Each horse will have trainer, owner, breeder, upcoming races and video where available. Each horse will have their own page with all their workouts and and articles written covering them.

Also, look for our early Kentucky Derby line. Going into tomorrow, Street Sense stands as the current 10-1 favorite.

Hard Spun (TCT'S #1) Should Roll Tomorrow

Hard Spun takes on 9 others in the PA Nursery tomorrow. A 7f race, Hard Spun may be racing more against the clock than his competition. Smarty Jones stopped the clock at just under 122 on this stop on the way to the Kentucky Derby. Any impressive time should put Hard Spun on the national radar.

Philadelphia Park - December 18th, 2006 - Race 9
Pennsylvania Nursery S. - Grade:
Estimated Local Post Time: 3:50 PM
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Two Year Old
Restriction: State Bred Purse: $50,000
Distance:Seven Furlongs
Surface: Dirt

1 Legacy Reserve 12/1
2 Favorite Valay 9/2
3 All Sails Flying 3/1
4 Mr. Boxcar 6/1
5 Road to Richmond 10/1
6 Saltie Springs 9/2
7 Hard Spun 8/5
8 Bound to Be Smart 20/1
9 Chase for the Gold 9/2
10 Ren Noc 20/1

TCT's Weekly Update for 2yr olds

Must watch races ths weekend with our analysis

$441,500 Hollywood Futurity

The horse to beat is Belgravia. The unbeaten 2 year old son of Mr. Greeley was a $2 million Fasig-Tipton buy in February by Michael Tabor, John Magnier. Held off the late charge by Dilemma in his last.

The horse to watch is clearly Principle Secret. Injured during his last race, a disappointing Breeders Cup Juvenile, look for him to bounce back if he is fully healthy. This should give us a good indication of whether this horse is the real deal.

Our selection though is Whatsthescript, an Irish-bred owned by Tommy Town Thoroughbreds and trained by Manuel Marques, he is a turf horse and while we don't like him on the dirt at Churchill Downs we get the feeling he will love the Cushion Track. A very impressive winner of the Hollywood's Generous Stakes Thanksgiving Weekend, this horse will be tough to beat here.


(gr. I, Race 9, 4:35 p.m.), 2-Year-Olds, 1 1/16 Miles
PP. Horse, Jockey
1. Silent Soul (KY), Garrett Gomez
2. Notional (CA), Corey Nakatani
3. Unusual Suspect (CA), David Cohen
4. Stormello (KY), Kent Desormeaux
5. Whatsthescript (IRE), Isaias Enriquez
6. Liquidity (KY), David Flores
7. Roman Commander (KY), Alex Solis
8. Principle Secret (KY), Victor Espinoza
9. Senior (KY), Agapito Delgadillo
10. Belgravia (KY), Julien Leparoux
Each assigned 121 pounds.

The other race to watch is the PA Nursery

TCT's top selection Hard Spun should win in a walk. There is not much else in the field.

Philadelphia Park - December 18th, 2006 - Race 9
Pennsylvania Nursery S. - Grade:
Estimated Local Post Time: 3:50 PM
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Two Year Old
Restriction: State Bred Purse: $50,000
Distance:Seven Furlongs
Surface: Dirt
Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Legacy Reserve (PA) 2 Colt 117 Kendrick Carmouche
2 Favorite Valay (PA) 2 Colt 117 Maria Charles
3 All Sails Flying (PA) 2 Gelding 117 Steve D. Hamilton
4 Mr. Boxcar (PA) 2 Colt 117 Victor H. Molina
5 Road to Richmond (PA) 2 Colt 117 Harry Vega
6 Saltie Springs (PA) 2 Colt 115 Josiah Francis Hampshire, Jr.
7 Hard Spun (PA) 2 Colt 122 Mario G. Pino
8 Bound to Be Smart (PA) 2 Gelding 115 Nick Santagata
9 Chase for the Gold (PA) 2 Gelding 120 David Mello
10 Ren Noc (PA) 2 Gelding 115 Dane Kobiskie

TCT's Top Horse Heads To the PA Nursery

The #1 rated Hard Spun will head to the track on Monday in the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes. Expected to be nothing more than a public workout, Hard Spun should win this easily and head off to Oaklawn Park next Wednesday to begin a push to the Kentucky Derby.

It is believed his next start after the Nursery could be the Grade III Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 13 at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans.

Why Tiz Wonderful Will Be Wonderful on the first Saturday in May

While Hard Spun took the top spot in our early ratings, I went with Tiz Wonderful as my top choice, while the other 2 writers were very high on Hard Spun. While Hard Spun has done nothing wrong, Tiz Wonderful is now 3 for 3 and has shown an affinity for the track that they will be racing on when they run the 2007 Kentucky Derby.

Tiz Wonderful's gutty performance against another TCT top 10 horse, Any Given Saturday, displayed his toughness and proved his first two efforts were no fluke.

Tiz Wonderful also holds one of the few 100+ beyers run by any 2yr old this year. His maiden beyer was an incredible 99 at 6.5f over the Saratoga course, followed by a solid 97 at Churchill at 8f, and his most recent was a 101 at 8.5f on the same Churchill strip.

It will be interesting to see if John Velasquez sticks with the son of TizNow with so many Pletcher 2yr old mounts available to him. It is my opinion though that he has already found his derby mount, and his name is Tiz Wonderful.

Owned by Jess Jackson's Stonestreet Stable LLC and trained by Scott Blasi, Tiz Wonderful's career bankroll is now at $228,792. It looks like his graded stakes money already qualifies him for the race he was born to win.

Early Public Kentucky Derby Poll

With nearly 50% of the votes going to Other, as expected, the results of the Triple Crown Trail's Early Kentucky Derby Poll show a wide open race. The schedule for next years Kentucky Derby Futures Pools are as follows:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/articleindex/article.asp?id=36652

Pool 1 – February 8-11
Pool 2 – March 8-11
Pool 3 – April 12-15


Nobiz Like Shobiz finished in second with 25 votes and finishing third with 20 votes was the Breeder's Cup winner Street Sense. The complete results of the poll which asked Who Would Win the 2007 Kentucky Derby are as follows:


Other 80

Nobiz Like Shobiz 25

Street Sense 20

Tiz Wonderful 16

Hard Spun 14

Circular Quay 10

Day Pass 4

Any Given Saturday 3

Pirates Deputy 3

Minefield 2

Les Grands Trois 0

Believeinmenow Makes Us A Believer

James Bond is at the top of the box office and may be on top of the horse racing world on the first Saturday in May with Believeinmenow. The son of TizNow won today at Aqueduct by 6 lengths in a decent time for the 1 mile and 70yd race. This horse is now on our radar.

TCT's 2yr old Race of the Week

Hollywood Park, Race 4, Sunday December 3

Watch it live today at calracing.com

Race Type: Maiden Special WeightBreed: Thoroughbred Age Restriction: Two Year Old
Purse: $42,000 Distance:One And One Sixteenth Miles Surface: All Weather Track

1 Exhale, Corey Nakatani, John Sadler 9/5 (ON THE RADAR)
2 Grapelli, Garret Gomez, Todd Pletcher 5/1
3 Maven, Julien R. Leparoux, Richard E. Dutrow, Jr. 15/1
4 Forward Commitment, Alex O. Solis, Dan L. Hendricks 5/1
5 World News, Victor Espinoza, Julio C. Canani 8/1
6 Classic Attire, Tyler Baze, Ronald L. McAnally 12/1
7 Private Wind, Agapito Delgadillo, Laura Wohlers 8/1
8 Game of Skill, Aaron Gryder, Jeff Mullins 5/2


There are a few races worth watching this week including today's 2nd race at Hollywood, a 1m 1/16 maiden special weight race , where Todd Pletcher sends out Ravel and a few others promising 2yr olds named Scorpion Prince and Got A Question will compete.


Exhale was scratched and the winner Grapelli jumped on the radar, but it was Ravel in an earlier race who impressed us the most. Keep on eye on that one.

This Week's Spotlight Horse- Great Hunter

Will Great Hunter Get his Prey on the first Saturday in May?

The Grade 1 winning Great Hunter, nicknamed "Little Lava Man" currently sits in our On the Radar section. The son of 2000 Kentucky Derby runner up Aptitude, the Lanes End Breeder's Cup Futurity winner could be a force to be reckoned with come May. Bought for only $30,000 as a yearling at the Keeneland September sale, Great Hunter's current owner, Paul Reddam, purchased him privately after Great Hunter won his maiden at Lone Star in his second start.

He has shown a ton of improvement since adding blinkers. His trainer Doug O'Neil loves his horse saying "he acts like an older horse. I'm excited about him." He even goes so far as to call him his "Little Lava Man."

With a win over our current number 2 Street Sense and our current number 5 Circular Quay, he is deserving of a spot in the Top 10, however that win was on the polytrack. We find it hard to believe he can make up the 12 lengths he was beaten by Street Sense over the same Churchill track they will run on in May. But you never know, Great Hunter just might bag the big game and find his way into the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May.

NTRA's Page on Great Hunter
includes, current record, winnings, and video of his races.

It can be found here http://www.ntra.com/stats_bios.aspx?id=20576

Is Hard Spun the next Super Horse?

One of the reasons we placed Hard Spun as our number 1 choice to win the 2007 Kentucky Derby was the opinion of Chuck Zacney, the managing partner of a horse you might have heard of named Afleet Alex.

"I got your Super Horse - I raced against him," Chuck Zacney, managing partner of the group that owned Afleet Alex, said this week, talking about a 2-year-old named Hard Spun who debuted at Delaware Park on Oct. 22, winning by 8 1/2 lengths. "I saw him in the paddock. He looked like a 3-year-old or a 4-year-old, not a 2-year-old. He was intimidating, and he showed it on the track."


We will have to see if he is a superhorse, but we like 2yr olds that are already intimidating and his performances so far have made us a believer.

Hard Spun Tops TCT's Kentucky Derby Rankings

Last year Barbaro took the opening lead in TCT's Kentucky Derby Rankings after winning the Holy Bull at Gulfstream and he never gave up that spot winning the 2006 Kentucky Derby. After numerous requests, we have decided to put out our early 2007 rankings instead of waiting for our usual February start. Topping our early rankings is a horse who like Barbaro broke his maiden at Delaware Park, and who will be taking a similar route to Churchill Downs as 2004 Kentucky Derby winner Smarty Jones.

Hard Spun (Danzig), the promising 2yr old tops TCT's Kentucky Derby Rankings. The impressive son of Danzig has been brilliant in both of his wins, winning his debut at Delaware Park on Oct. 22, by 8 3/4 lengths, and returning November 14 to win the Port Penn Stakes at Delaware by five lengths. Currently staying at Barbaro's old stomping grounds of Fair Hill, he is expected to start next in the PA Nursery, a race won by 2004 Kentucky Derby winner Smarty Jones. Owned by Rick Porter's Fox Hill Farm, of Rockport Harbor fame, and trained by a TCT favorite, Larry Jones, the 2yr old colt is ridden by Mario Pino, who lost his Kentucky Derby mount last year on Sweetnorthernsaint when he needed surgery. TCT believes the 3 men who make up the owner/trainer/jockey combination currently have the horse with the best chance to find his way into in the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May.

Hard Spun is a half-brother to stakes winner Our Rite of Spring, a mare of 2001 by the Nureyev horse Stravinsky, and both stakes winners are out of the Turkoman mare Turkish Tryst.

See Hard Spun's maiden victory here http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/sports/horse_racing/kentucky_derby/15896119.htm)

Street Sense (Street Cry) takes the number 2 spot. What is not to like about a 10 length winner of the Breeder's Cup Juvenile? His 108 beyer is one of the highest ever received by a two year old and he did it over the track they will be running on in May. He will have the homefield advantage in May and a win would not be the first time his trainer held up the Kentucky Derby trophy in the winner's circle. As Nafzger noted he is a "freaky kind of horse". The early Kentucky Derby favorite.

Tiz Wonderful (TizNow) comes in at number 3. The undefeated son of TizNow is arguably the best 2yr old in training. He has been tested and responded in his last. Steadily increasing beyers and a love of Churchill Downs might make him the horse to beat. Blasi said he will take the colt to New Orleans for the winter. "He's still trying to put it all together," Blasi said. "I think when he learns to relax a little more off the pace we'll know a lot more about him." The Top Choice of one of our two writers.

Nobiz Like Shobiz (Albert the Great) takes the 4 spot. A 6 1/2-length winner in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct , this beautiful son of Albert the Great is trained by a man who knows how to get to the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May. As Barclay Tagg said when he first saw him in Ocala, "If he's not a Triple Crown candidate, they've never made one." Looks to make his next start in Gulfstream's Fountain of Youth, a race last year's derby winner used as a springboard to the derby.

Circular Quay (Thunder Gulch) gets the 5 hole. Probably the 2yr old with the best resume, his Breeder's Cup Juvenile was better than it looked. We have to agree with Pletcher that "Circular Quay ran a huge race." His late running style could be perfect for a 10f race in May. Could he be the one to get Pletcher his first Kentucky Derby? Currently training on the polytrack out in California.

Any Given Saturday (Distored Humor) gets our number 6 ranking. He proved he is not just a polytrack horse in his effort against Tiz Wonderful. That effort earned him a triple digit beyer. This one may turn out to be Pletcher's best. Said trainer Todd Pletcher of his Any Given Saturday, "He's just got to learn how to polish it off."

Day Pass (Five Star Day) earned his number 7 spot with an impressive front-running 4 1/4 lengths victory in the Grade 3, $112,900 Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct. The knock on him is that he will prep for the Kentucky Derby in Dubai. Is he good enough to overcome that? Fernando Jara thinks so commenting "I've never ridden a 2-year-old like him before."

Minefield (Silver Deputy) gets in at number 8. Followed up his impressive 8 ½-length maiden victory on May 14 at Churchill Downs with a recent victory in a 7f allowance race over the same track. The $400000 yearling battled health problems, including sore shins, for part of the year but it looks like Pletcher assistant Mike McCarthy has him healthy. A real threat if he can stretch out.

Les Grands Trois (Officer) is number 9. Maiden win was as impressive as they come. Will the son of Officer be able to stretch out is the question. The Frankel trainee had some injury issues but we expect to hear from this one in the spring.

Pirate's Deputy (Bertrando) comes in at number 10 after his second place finish in the million dollar race at Delta Downs. Already with enough graded earnings to make the derby field, the son of Bertrando has a strong closing move. Our current longshot. One to watch.


On the radar: Great Hunter, Soaring By, Green Vegas, Belgravia, Scat Daddy, Twilight Meteor, Birdbirdstheword, Principle Secret