Last January, long before Barbaro won the derby, trainer Michael Matz was asked if he knew where the name Barbaro came from, he called to his assistant, Peter Brette. “Hey, Peter, what does the name Barbaro mean?” he asked. Brette didn’t hesitate with his answer: “Kentucky Derby winner.”
This year the question is how do you pronounce Ravel? Is it ravel, the opposite of unravel, or ruh-VELL, like the composer? We will make it easy on everyone and just pronounce it "Kentucky Derby Winner".
Demi O'Byrne answered the question though for us. Ravel, that's his name," bloodstock agent Demi O'Byrne confirmed Saturday at Santa Anita, saying it like the composer instead of the opposite of unravel. "We'll have to have a talk with Mr. (Trevor) Denman (the track announcer)."
Ravel is the son of Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus. His broodmare sire is AP Indy. A $950K KEESEPT'05 purchase, he is owned by Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith, and trained by Todd Pletcher.
He is currently 2 for 3 with a win in yesterday's 9f Sham Stakes. He now holds the faster beyer in a route by any 3yr old this year.
What makes this horse scary is that he has only been on the track 3x. His first effort on the dirt was yesterday, and it looks like he is going to be tough to beat on any surface.
Look for him to be one of the top 3 choices in next week's Pool 1 Kentucky Derby futures.
Sunday, February 4, 2007
TCT's Derby Top 15
Well we have finished the first round of preps for the derby, and we learned a few things. Ravel is a very serious racehorse with a derby pedigree, Nobiz Like Shobiz continues to impress but is no sure thing, and horses are coming out of everywhere. Here are the rankings.
1) Ravel- Son of a derby winner, with a triple digit beyer in a 9f race in his third career race, this horse looks like he could be a great one. Not only is he fast, but he is gritty with a stretch dual win over a very good horse. He is the one to beat right now.
2) Hard Spun- He drops a spot, not because of anything more than the emerging monster at the top of the list. Hard Spun got sick too, which doesn't help, and his change of plans might not hurt him, but can't be very happy having a sick horse this time of year.
3) Nobiz Like Shobiz- Another impressive win, but he still green and it is getting late in the game. If the light doesn't go off in his head soon, it might never go off. Still might be the most talented one out there. Is it time to switch to a tier 1 jockey? The Derby isn't run on the grass.
4) Exhale- This horse owns the top beyer with a 104 in an effortless performance. He should stretch out and he looks to be the one everyone is going to have to worry about.
5) Street Sense- Only two preps? If it wasn't with a Kentucky Derby winning trainer we would say toss him, but he has a huge beyer and win over Churchill. Two preps does hurt him though.
6) Any Given Saturday- The real darkhorse. It is possible Tiz Wonderful was just better than everyone on this list and Any Given Saturday was just beaten by a great horse. Another bullet in Pletcher's loaded gun.
7) Liquidity- Ran a huge race against our number 1 horse, but he doesn't like to win.
8) Great Hunter- Not much new to report, a solid horse with a solid chance.
9) Soaring By- Ran a huge race an put up a very nice beyer yesterday in his first race in 8 months. He was 3 wide the entire way and probably needed the race, but his maiden win was no fluke. If he can move forward, watch out.
10) Spin Master - Who is this horse? He had an ideal trip yesterday, but he beat two very good horses and his pedigree looks mighty similar to a recent Kentucky Derby winner still in training. And we aren't talking about Giacomo.
11)Circular Quay
12)Lawrence the Roman
13)Notional
14)Day Pass
15)Birdbirdistheword
1) Ravel- Son of a derby winner, with a triple digit beyer in a 9f race in his third career race, this horse looks like he could be a great one. Not only is he fast, but he is gritty with a stretch dual win over a very good horse. He is the one to beat right now.
2) Hard Spun- He drops a spot, not because of anything more than the emerging monster at the top of the list. Hard Spun got sick too, which doesn't help, and his change of plans might not hurt him, but can't be very happy having a sick horse this time of year.
3) Nobiz Like Shobiz- Another impressive win, but he still green and it is getting late in the game. If the light doesn't go off in his head soon, it might never go off. Still might be the most talented one out there. Is it time to switch to a tier 1 jockey? The Derby isn't run on the grass.
4) Exhale- This horse owns the top beyer with a 104 in an effortless performance. He should stretch out and he looks to be the one everyone is going to have to worry about.
5) Street Sense- Only two preps? If it wasn't with a Kentucky Derby winning trainer we would say toss him, but he has a huge beyer and win over Churchill. Two preps does hurt him though.
6) Any Given Saturday- The real darkhorse. It is possible Tiz Wonderful was just better than everyone on this list and Any Given Saturday was just beaten by a great horse. Another bullet in Pletcher's loaded gun.
7) Liquidity- Ran a huge race against our number 1 horse, but he doesn't like to win.
8) Great Hunter- Not much new to report, a solid horse with a solid chance.
9) Soaring By- Ran a huge race an put up a very nice beyer yesterday in his first race in 8 months. He was 3 wide the entire way and probably needed the race, but his maiden win was no fluke. If he can move forward, watch out.
10) Spin Master - Who is this horse? He had an ideal trip yesterday, but he beat two very good horses and his pedigree looks mighty similar to a recent Kentucky Derby winner still in training. And we aren't talking about Giacomo.
11)Circular Quay
12)Lawrence the Roman
13)Notional
14)Day Pass
15)Birdbirdistheword
Saturday, January 20, 2007
TCT Race of the Week Solicitous vs Time Squared.
Solicitous and Time Squared, two horses that are likely to make a huge impact on the Triple Crown series face off in a maiden tomorrow at Santa Anita. Could this be the beginning of the next great rivalry in racing? A few other nice ones are in there, but one of our writers believes the Kentucky Derby winner will come out of this race.
Santa Anita Park - January 21st, 2007 - Race 6
Estimated Local Post Time: 3:00 PM
Race Type: Maiden Special Weight
Distance:One And One Sixteenth Miles
Surface: Dirt
Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Wellnessfast (KY) 3 Colt 121 Martin A. Pedroza
2 Gandolf (KY) 3 Colt 121 Aaron T. Gryder
3 Time Squared (NY) 3 Colt 121 Julien R. Leparoux
4 Beyond Boundries (KY) 3 Gelding 121 Jon Kenton Court
5 Carman (KY) 3 Colt 121 David Cohen
6 Spankey Come Home (KY) 3 Colt 121 Gerry Olguin
7 Solicitous (KY) 3 Colt 121 Garrett K. Gomez
8 Big Motor (KY) 3 Colt 121 Corey S. Nakatani
9 Fortunate Victory (KY) 3 Colt 121 Richard Migliore
10 Pointing Star (KY) 3 Colt 121 Tyler Baze
11 Tiago (KY) 3 Colt 121 Victor Espinoza
12 Rather Be Lucky (KY) 3 Colt 121 Paul Atkinson
Santa Anita Park - January 21st, 2007 - Race 6
Estimated Local Post Time: 3:00 PM
Race Type: Maiden Special Weight
Distance:One And One Sixteenth Miles
Surface: Dirt
Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Wellnessfast (KY) 3 Colt 121 Martin A. Pedroza
2 Gandolf (KY) 3 Colt 121 Aaron T. Gryder
3 Time Squared (NY) 3 Colt 121 Julien R. Leparoux
4 Beyond Boundries (KY) 3 Gelding 121 Jon Kenton Court
5 Carman (KY) 3 Colt 121 David Cohen
6 Spankey Come Home (KY) 3 Colt 121 Gerry Olguin
7 Solicitous (KY) 3 Colt 121 Garrett K. Gomez
8 Big Motor (KY) 3 Colt 121 Corey S. Nakatani
9 Fortunate Victory (KY) 3 Colt 121 Richard Migliore
10 Pointing Star (KY) 3 Colt 121 Tyler Baze
11 Tiago (KY) 3 Colt 121 Victor Espinoza
12 Rather Be Lucky (KY) 3 Colt 121 Paul Atkinson
TCT's Early Kentucky Derby Futures Line
The first Kentucky Derby futures pool opens in just a few weeks and the line has been posted at the Las Vegas Hilton. So here is our analysis of the 20 horses that we expect to see in the gate in May against the current Las Vegas Hilton odds. Realistically 10 will make it at best.
Our line is next to the horse and the Letitride futures line can be found at the end of our analysis.
1. Street Sense (12-1) This horse has to be the favorite simply because of his beyer and win over the same track that will host the derby. (Las Vegas Hilton 9-1)
2. Exhale (12-1) Get in on this horse while you can. This horse will be the favorite on Kentucky Derby Day. He tops this years beyers list and looks like he can run forever (LVH 40-1)
3. Any Given Saturday (15-1) With Tiz Wondeful going down this horse has moved up. He has a big race over Churchill and is in good hands. (LVH 22-1)
4. Nobiz Like Shobiz (15-1) The favorite in the Las Vegas Hilton book, he is in good hands with a Kentucky Derby winning trainer. He is overbet though and not a good value in any futures book. A lack of a race at Churchill before the derby doesn't hurt him, but doesn't help him either. (LVH 8-1)
5. Circular Quay (18-1) Maybe the forgotten horse. His Breeders Cup was better than it looked. He may not want to run 10f though, but he does like Churchill. (LVH 30-1)
6. Notional (20-1)Hard not to like this horse that beat Exhale, but prefer Exhale. Not sure if 10f is his strength. (LVH 18-1)
7. Hard Spun (20-1) Obviously very impressive and still undefeated, however much like Nobiz Like Shobiz he is being overbet on wins against weak competition. Still has a lot to prove. (LVH 15-1)
8. Lawrence the Roman (25-1) Expect him to be undefeated when he meets the current LVH futures favorite Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Wood. Another NY bred named Funny Cide didn't get by the unbeatable Empire Maker but we all know who won the Funny Cide-Empire Maker matchup on derby day. A good value right now. (LVH 40-1)
9. Pirates Deputy (25-1) This horse seems like the more distance the better. He will be closing late at Churchill. A real shot to take home the Kentucky Derby trophy. (LVH 40-1)
10. Birdbirdistheword (30-1) He is a really nice horse but prefer the horse he beat Pirates Deputy. Way overbet on the current LVH line. (LVH 20-1)
11.Soaring By (35-1) This horse could be the real deal. His win on the 4th of July last year was really impressive. A solid value on the LVH line. (LVH 50-1)
12.Great Hunter (35-1) A lot of people really like him. Tend to take a position against him and think he is a little overbet at the hilton. (LVH 30-1)
13. Ravel (35-1) People love this horse. He has been bet down to a pretty short price in Las Vegas. Not a great value, but can't say he isn't impressive. (LVH 22-1)
14. Scat Daddy (40-1) Don't see him winning the Derby, and winning is all that matters in a futures bet. Pass, especially at 30-1. (LVH 30-1)
15. Day Pass (40-1) A real shot if they didn't take him half way around the world. Odds are he won't get it done. But at 50-1 in the hilton book, not a bad value. (LVH 50-1)
16. Stormello (40-1) Somebody likes him because he is 35-1 in vegas. Don't see that as a good value. Pass. (LVH 35-1)
17. Chelokee (40-1) If you are going to take a chance, he is a good horse to take a chance with. Who knows how good he is, but he has the right trainer. (LVH 40-1)
18. Minefield (40-1) If he wasn't bought and shipped to Dubai he would be 20-1 and a real serious player. Can't take a chance on the horse after his purchase. Pass (LVH 50-1)
19. Belgravia (40-1) A solid futures value. They have him at 50-1 but he is a little better than that. (LVH 50-1)
20. Liquidity (50-1) Sombody really likes this horse. Just not us. He has been bet down to 25-1 at the Hilton. Usually when a horse is taking that much action he is a horse to watch. Interesting but not at that price. (LVH 25-1)
Time Squared and Solicitious are two to watch closely. A maiden win by either would make them very interesting futures bets.
Our line is next to the horse and the Letitride futures line can be found at the end of our analysis.
1. Street Sense (12-1) This horse has to be the favorite simply because of his beyer and win over the same track that will host the derby. (Las Vegas Hilton 9-1)
2. Exhale (12-1) Get in on this horse while you can. This horse will be the favorite on Kentucky Derby Day. He tops this years beyers list and looks like he can run forever (LVH 40-1)
3. Any Given Saturday (15-1) With Tiz Wondeful going down this horse has moved up. He has a big race over Churchill and is in good hands. (LVH 22-1)
4. Nobiz Like Shobiz (15-1) The favorite in the Las Vegas Hilton book, he is in good hands with a Kentucky Derby winning trainer. He is overbet though and not a good value in any futures book. A lack of a race at Churchill before the derby doesn't hurt him, but doesn't help him either. (LVH 8-1)
5. Circular Quay (18-1) Maybe the forgotten horse. His Breeders Cup was better than it looked. He may not want to run 10f though, but he does like Churchill. (LVH 30-1)
6. Notional (20-1)Hard not to like this horse that beat Exhale, but prefer Exhale. Not sure if 10f is his strength. (LVH 18-1)
7. Hard Spun (20-1) Obviously very impressive and still undefeated, however much like Nobiz Like Shobiz he is being overbet on wins against weak competition. Still has a lot to prove. (LVH 15-1)
8. Lawrence the Roman (25-1) Expect him to be undefeated when he meets the current LVH futures favorite Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Wood. Another NY bred named Funny Cide didn't get by the unbeatable Empire Maker but we all know who won the Funny Cide-Empire Maker matchup on derby day. A good value right now. (LVH 40-1)
9. Pirates Deputy (25-1) This horse seems like the more distance the better. He will be closing late at Churchill. A real shot to take home the Kentucky Derby trophy. (LVH 40-1)
10. Birdbirdistheword (30-1) He is a really nice horse but prefer the horse he beat Pirates Deputy. Way overbet on the current LVH line. (LVH 20-1)
11.Soaring By (35-1) This horse could be the real deal. His win on the 4th of July last year was really impressive. A solid value on the LVH line. (LVH 50-1)
12.Great Hunter (35-1) A lot of people really like him. Tend to take a position against him and think he is a little overbet at the hilton. (LVH 30-1)
13. Ravel (35-1) People love this horse. He has been bet down to a pretty short price in Las Vegas. Not a great value, but can't say he isn't impressive. (LVH 22-1)
14. Scat Daddy (40-1) Don't see him winning the Derby, and winning is all that matters in a futures bet. Pass, especially at 30-1. (LVH 30-1)
15. Day Pass (40-1) A real shot if they didn't take him half way around the world. Odds are he won't get it done. But at 50-1 in the hilton book, not a bad value. (LVH 50-1)
16. Stormello (40-1) Somebody likes him because he is 35-1 in vegas. Don't see that as a good value. Pass. (LVH 35-1)
17. Chelokee (40-1) If you are going to take a chance, he is a good horse to take a chance with. Who knows how good he is, but he has the right trainer. (LVH 40-1)
18. Minefield (40-1) If he wasn't bought and shipped to Dubai he would be 20-1 and a real serious player. Can't take a chance on the horse after his purchase. Pass (LVH 50-1)
19. Belgravia (40-1) A solid futures value. They have him at 50-1 but he is a little better than that. (LVH 50-1)
20. Liquidity (50-1) Sombody really likes this horse. Just not us. He has been bet down to 25-1 at the Hilton. Usually when a horse is taking that much action he is a horse to watch. Interesting but not at that price. (LVH 25-1)
Time Squared and Solicitious are two to watch closely. A maiden win by either would make them very interesting futures bets.
TCT's Early Kentucky Derby Futures Line
The first Kentucky Derby futures pool opens in just a few weeks and the line has been posted at the Las Vegas Hilton. So here is our analysis of the 20 horses that we expect to see in the gate in May. Realistically 10 will make it at best.
Our line is next to the horse and the Letitride futures line can be found at the end of our analysis.
1. Street Sense (12-1) This horse has to be the favorite simply because of his beyer and win over the same track that will host the derby. (Las Vegas Hilton 9-1)
2. Exhale (12-1) Get in on this horse while you can. This horse will be the favorite on Kentucky Derby Day. He tops this years beyers list and looks like he can run forever (LVH 40-1)
3. Any Given Saturday (15-1) With Tiz Wondeful going down this horse has moved up. He has a big race over Churchill and is in good hands. (LVH 22-1)
4. Nobiz Like Shobiz (15-1) The favorite in the Las Vegas Hilton book, he is in good hands with a Kentucky Derby winning trainer. He is overbet though and not a good value in any futures book. A lack of a race at Churchill before the derby doesn't hurt him, but doesn't help him either. (LVH 8-1)
5. Circular Quay (18-1) Maybe the forgotten horse. His Breeders Cup was better than it looked. He may not want to run 10f though, but he does like Churchill. (LVH 30-1)
6. Notional (20-1)Hard not to like this horse that beat Exhale, but prefer Exhale. Not sure if 10f is his strength. (LVH 18-1)
7. Hard Spun (20-1) Obviously very impressive and still undefeated, however much like Nobiz Like Shobiz he is being overbet on wins against weak competition. Still has a lot to prove. (LVH 15-1)
8. Lawrence the Roman (25-1) Expect him to be undefeated when he meets the current LVH futures favorite Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Wood. Another NY bred named Funny Cide didn't get by the unbeatable Empire Maker but we all know who won the Funny Cide-Empire Maker matchup on derby day. A good value right now. (LVH 40-1)
9. Pirates Deputy (25-1) This horse seems like the more distance the better. He will be closing late at Churchill. A real shot to take home the Kentucky Derby trophy. (LVH 40-1)
10. Birdbirdistheword (30-1) He is a really nice horse but prefer the horse he beat Pirates Deputy. Way overbet on the current LVH line. (LVH 20-1)
11.Soaring By (35-1) This horse could be the real deal. His win on the 4th of July last year was really impressive. A solid value on the LVH line. (LVH 50-1)
12.Great Hunter (35-1) A lot of people really like him. Tend to take a position against him and think he is a little overbet at the hilton. (LVH 30-1)
13. Ravel (35-1) People love this horse. He has been bet down to a pretty short price in Las Vegas. Not a great value, but can't say he isn't impressive. (LVH 22-1)
14. Scat Daddy (40-1) Don't see him winning the Derby, and winning is all that matters in a futures bet. Pass, especially at 30-1. (LVH 30-1)
15. Day Pass (40-1) A real shot if they didn't take him half way around the world. Odds are he won't get it done. But at 50-1 in the hilton book, not a bad value. (LVH 50-1)
16. Stormello (40-1) Somebody likes him because he is 35-1 in vegas. Don't see that as a good value. Pass. (LVH 35-1)
17. Chelokee (40-1) If you are going to take a chance, he is a good horse to take a chance with. Who knows how good he is, but he has the right trainer. (LVH 40-1)
18. Minefield (40-1) If he wasn't bought and shipped to Dubai he would be 20-1 and a real serious player. Can't take a chance on the horse after his purchase. Pass (LVH 50-1)
19. Belgravia (40-1) A solid futures value. They have him at 50-1 but he is a little better than that. (LVH 50-1)
20. Liquidity (50-1) Sombody really likes this horse. Just not us. He has been bet down to 25-1 at the Hilton. Usually when a horse is taking that much action he is a horse to watch. Interesting but not at that price. (LVH 25-1)
Time Squared and Solicitious are two to watch closely. A maiden win by either would make them very interesting futures bets.
Our line is next to the horse and the Letitride futures line can be found at the end of our analysis.
1. Street Sense (12-1) This horse has to be the favorite simply because of his beyer and win over the same track that will host the derby. (Las Vegas Hilton 9-1)
2. Exhale (12-1) Get in on this horse while you can. This horse will be the favorite on Kentucky Derby Day. He tops this years beyers list and looks like he can run forever (LVH 40-1)
3. Any Given Saturday (15-1) With Tiz Wondeful going down this horse has moved up. He has a big race over Churchill and is in good hands. (LVH 22-1)
4. Nobiz Like Shobiz (15-1) The favorite in the Las Vegas Hilton book, he is in good hands with a Kentucky Derby winning trainer. He is overbet though and not a good value in any futures book. A lack of a race at Churchill before the derby doesn't hurt him, but doesn't help him either. (LVH 8-1)
5. Circular Quay (18-1) Maybe the forgotten horse. His Breeders Cup was better than it looked. He may not want to run 10f though, but he does like Churchill. (LVH 30-1)
6. Notional (20-1)Hard not to like this horse that beat Exhale, but prefer Exhale. Not sure if 10f is his strength. (LVH 18-1)
7. Hard Spun (20-1) Obviously very impressive and still undefeated, however much like Nobiz Like Shobiz he is being overbet on wins against weak competition. Still has a lot to prove. (LVH 15-1)
8. Lawrence the Roman (25-1) Expect him to be undefeated when he meets the current LVH futures favorite Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Wood. Another NY bred named Funny Cide didn't get by the unbeatable Empire Maker but we all know who won the Funny Cide-Empire Maker matchup on derby day. A good value right now. (LVH 40-1)
9. Pirates Deputy (25-1) This horse seems like the more distance the better. He will be closing late at Churchill. A real shot to take home the Kentucky Derby trophy. (LVH 40-1)
10. Birdbirdistheword (30-1) He is a really nice horse but prefer the horse he beat Pirates Deputy. Way overbet on the current LVH line. (LVH 20-1)
11.Soaring By (35-1) This horse could be the real deal. His win on the 4th of July last year was really impressive. A solid value on the LVH line. (LVH 50-1)
12.Great Hunter (35-1) A lot of people really like him. Tend to take a position against him and think he is a little overbet at the hilton. (LVH 30-1)
13. Ravel (35-1) People love this horse. He has been bet down to a pretty short price in Las Vegas. Not a great value, but can't say he isn't impressive. (LVH 22-1)
14. Scat Daddy (40-1) Don't see him winning the Derby, and winning is all that matters in a futures bet. Pass, especially at 30-1. (LVH 30-1)
15. Day Pass (40-1) A real shot if they didn't take him half way around the world. Odds are he won't get it done. But at 50-1 in the hilton book, not a bad value. (LVH 50-1)
16. Stormello (40-1) Somebody likes him because he is 35-1 in vegas. Don't see that as a good value. Pass. (LVH 35-1)
17. Chelokee (40-1) If you are going to take a chance, he is a good horse to take a chance with. Who knows how good he is, but he has the right trainer. (LVH 40-1)
18. Minefield (40-1) If he wasn't bought and shipped to Dubai he would be 20-1 and a real serious player. Can't take a chance on the horse after his purchase. Pass (LVH 50-1)
19. Belgravia (40-1) A solid futures value. They have him at 50-1 but he is a little better than that. (LVH 50-1)
20. Liquidity (50-1) Sombody really likes this horse. Just not us. He has been bet down to 25-1 at the Hilton. Usually when a horse is taking that much action he is a horse to watch. Interesting but not at that price. (LVH 25-1)
Time Squared and Solicitious are two to watch closely. A maiden win by either would make them very interesting futures bets.
TCT's Early Kentucky Derby Futures Line
The first Kentucky Derby futures pool opens in just a few weeks and the line has been posted at the Las Vegas Hilton. So here is our analysis of the 20 horses that we expect to see in the gate in May. Realistically 10 will make it at best.
Our line is next to the horse and the Letitride futures line can be found at the end of our analysis.
1. Street Sense (12-1) This horse has to be the favorite simply because of his beyer and win over the same track that will host the derby. (Las Vegas Hilton 9-1)
2. Exhale (12-1) Get in on this horse while you can. This horse will be the favorite on Kentucky Derby Day. He tops this years beyers list and looks like he can run forever (LVH 40-1)
3. Any Given Saturday (15-1) With Tiz Wondeful going down this horse has moved up. He has a big race over Churchill and is in good hands. (LVH 22-1)
4. Nobiz Like Shobiz (15-1) The favorite in the Las Vegas Hilton book, he is in good hands with a Kentucky Derby winning trainer. He is overbet though and not a good value in any futures book. A lack of a race at Churchill before the derby doesn't hurt him, but doesn't help him either. (LVH 8-1)
5. Circular Quay (18-1) Maybe the forgotten horse. His Breeders Cup was better than it looked. He may not want to run 10f though, but he does like Churchill. (LVH 30-1)
6. Notional (20-1)Hard not to like this horse that beat Exhale, but prefer Exhale. Not sure if 10f is his strength. (LVH 18-1)
7. Hard Spun (20-1) Obviously very impressive and still undefeated, however much like Nobiz Like Shobiz he is being overbet on wins against weak competition. Still has a lot to prove. (LVH 15-1)
8. Lawrence the Roman (25-1) Expect him to be undefeated when he meets the current LVH futures favorite Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Wood. Another NY bred named Funny Cide didn't get by the unbeatable Empire Maker but we all know who won the Funny Cide-Empire Maker matchup on derby day. A good value right now. (LVH 40-1)
9. Pirates Deputy (25-1) This horse seems like the more distance the better. He will be closing late at Churchill. A real shot to take home the Kentucky Derby trophy. (LVH 40-1)
10. Birdbirdistheword (30-1) He is a really nice horse but prefer the horse he beat Pirates Deputy. Way overbet on the current LVH line. (LVH 20-1)
11.Soaring By (35-1) This horse could be the real deal. His win on the 4th of July last year was really impressive. A solid value on the LVH line. (LVH 50-1)
12.Great Hunter (35-1) A lot of people really like him. Tend to take a position against him and think he is a little overbet at the hilton. (LVH 30-1)
13. Ravel (35-1) People love this horse. He has been bet down to a pretty short price in Las Vegas. Not a great value, but can't say he isn't impressive. (LVH 22-1)
14. Scat Daddy (40-1) Don't see him winning the Derby, and winning is all that matters in a futures bet. Pass, especially at 30-1. (LVH 30-1)
15. Day Pass (40-1) A real shot if they didn't take him half way around the world. Odds are he won't get it done. But at 50-1 in the hilton book, not a bad value. (LVH 50-1)
16. Stormello (40-1) Somebody likes him because he is 35-1 in vegas. Don't see that as a good value. Pass. (LVH 35-1)
17. Chelokee (40-1) If you are going to take a chance, he is a good horse to take a chance with. Who knows how good he is, but he has the right trainer. (LVH 40-1)
18. Minefield (40-1) If he wasn't bought and shipped to Dubai he would be 20-1 and a real serious player. Can't take a chance on the horse after his purchase. Pass (LVH 50-1)
19. Belgravia (40-1) A solid futures value. They have him at 50-1 but he is a little better than that. (LVH 50-1)
20. Liquidity (50-1) Sombody really likes this horse. Just not us. He has been bet down to 25-1 at the Hilton. Usually when a horse is taking that much action he is a horse to watch. Interesting but not at that price. (LVH 25-1)
Time Squared and Solicitious are two to watch closely. A maiden win by either would make them very interesting futures bets.
Our line is next to the horse and the Letitride futures line can be found at the end of our analysis.
1. Street Sense (12-1) This horse has to be the favorite simply because of his beyer and win over the same track that will host the derby. (Las Vegas Hilton 9-1)
2. Exhale (12-1) Get in on this horse while you can. This horse will be the favorite on Kentucky Derby Day. He tops this years beyers list and looks like he can run forever (LVH 40-1)
3. Any Given Saturday (15-1) With Tiz Wondeful going down this horse has moved up. He has a big race over Churchill and is in good hands. (LVH 22-1)
4. Nobiz Like Shobiz (15-1) The favorite in the Las Vegas Hilton book, he is in good hands with a Kentucky Derby winning trainer. He is overbet though and not a good value in any futures book. A lack of a race at Churchill before the derby doesn't hurt him, but doesn't help him either. (LVH 8-1)
5. Circular Quay (18-1) Maybe the forgotten horse. His Breeders Cup was better than it looked. He may not want to run 10f though, but he does like Churchill. (LVH 30-1)
6. Notional (20-1)Hard not to like this horse that beat Exhale, but prefer Exhale. Not sure if 10f is his strength. (LVH 18-1)
7. Hard Spun (20-1) Obviously very impressive and still undefeated, however much like Nobiz Like Shobiz he is being overbet on wins against weak competition. Still has a lot to prove. (LVH 15-1)
8. Lawrence the Roman (25-1) Expect him to be undefeated when he meets the current LVH futures favorite Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Wood. Another NY bred named Funny Cide didn't get by the unbeatable Empire Maker but we all know who won the Funny Cide-Empire Maker matchup on derby day. A good value right now. (LVH 40-1)
9. Pirates Deputy (25-1) This horse seems like the more distance the better. He will be closing late at Churchill. A real shot to take home the Kentucky Derby trophy. (LVH 40-1)
10. Birdbirdistheword (30-1) He is a really nice horse but prefer the horse he beat Pirates Deputy. Way overbet on the current LVH line. (LVH 20-1)
11.Soaring By (35-1) This horse could be the real deal. His win on the 4th of July last year was really impressive. A solid value on the LVH line. (LVH 50-1)
12.Great Hunter (35-1) A lot of people really like him. Tend to take a position against him and think he is a little overbet at the hilton. (LVH 30-1)
13. Ravel (35-1) People love this horse. He has been bet down to a pretty short price in Las Vegas. Not a great value, but can't say he isn't impressive. (LVH 22-1)
14. Scat Daddy (40-1) Don't see him winning the Derby, and winning is all that matters in a futures bet. Pass, especially at 30-1. (LVH 30-1)
15. Day Pass (40-1) A real shot if they didn't take him half way around the world. Odds are he won't get it done. But at 50-1 in the hilton book, not a bad value. (LVH 50-1)
16. Stormello (40-1) Somebody likes him because he is 35-1 in vegas. Don't see that as a good value. Pass. (LVH 35-1)
17. Chelokee (40-1) If you are going to take a chance, he is a good horse to take a chance with. Who knows how good he is, but he has the right trainer. (LVH 40-1)
18. Minefield (40-1) If he wasn't bought and shipped to Dubai he would be 20-1 and a real serious player. Can't take a chance on the horse after his purchase. Pass (LVH 50-1)
19. Belgravia (40-1) A solid futures value. They have him at 50-1 but he is a little better than that. (LVH 50-1)
20. Liquidity (50-1) Sombody really likes this horse. Just not us. He has been bet down to 25-1 at the Hilton. Usually when a horse is taking that much action he is a horse to watch. Interesting but not at that price. (LVH 25-1)
Time Squared and Solicitious are two to watch closely. A maiden win by either would make them very interesting futures bets.
Monday, January 8, 2007
Week's Impressive Works
Numerous big names were out the past week, with 4 works catching our eye. Hard Spun, Great Hunter, Nobiz Like Shobiz, and Pirate's Deputy all put in big works.
Hard Spun
Date: January 8, 2007
Track: OAKLAWN PARK
Distance: Five Furlongs
Time: 1.02:20 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 2/29
Great Hunter
Date: January 8, 2007
Track: HOLLYWOOD PARK
Distance: Three Furlongs
Time: 35:80 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: All Weather Track
Rank: 1/20
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Date: January 7, 2007
Track: GULFSTREAM PARK
Distance: Five Furlongs
Time: 1.01:20 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 3/12
Pirate's Deputy
Date: January 7, 2007
Track: SANTA ANITA PARK
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 47:20 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 4/36
Hard Spun
Date: January 8, 2007
Track: OAKLAWN PARK
Distance: Five Furlongs
Time: 1.02:20 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 2/29
Great Hunter
Date: January 8, 2007
Track: HOLLYWOOD PARK
Distance: Three Furlongs
Time: 35:80 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: All Weather Track
Rank: 1/20
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Date: January 7, 2007
Track: GULFSTREAM PARK
Distance: Five Furlongs
Time: 1.01:20 Breezing
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 3/12
Pirate's Deputy
Date: January 7, 2007
Track: SANTA ANITA PARK
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 47:20 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 4/36
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